Alphabet stock upside is getting a lot of fresh attention right now, and it makes sense. On March 8, Alphabet’s board approved a CEO compensation plan for Sundar Pichai worth up to $692 million — roughly 1 trillion Korean won — and disclosed it to the SEC. Almost all of it is performance-based, and it directly ties Pichai’s pay to where the GOOGL stock price goes, to Waymo IPO potential, and also to the broader Alphabet stock forecast over the next three years.
Source: Google Finance
Alphabet Stock Upside Boosted by Pichai Pay, Waymo IPO, and Stock Forecast
What the CEO Compensation Plan Says About Alphabet Stock Upside
Pichai’s base salary stays at $2 million a year — unchanged since 2020. Everything else is equity, and there’s a lot of it. Alphabet links up to $252 million to outperforming the S&P 100, hands Pichai $84 million in restricted stock that vests gradually over three years, and splits another $350 million between Waymo and Wing performance. For investors, the Alphabet stock upside angle here is pretty direct: Alphabet only pays out if it also delivers for shareholders. That alignment between CEO pay and shareholder returns is also, generally, what markets tend to react well to — and it’s a big reason the Alphabet stock upside story keeps coming up in analyst notes this week.
In its SEC filing, Alphabet said:
“Further incentivizing Mr. Pichai is in the best interests of Alphabet and its stockholders.”
The board, in the same filing, also described the two units driving a big chunk of the CEO compensation plan:
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Alphabet’s board noted:
“Tackling enormous challenges in autonomous driving and delivery.”
Waymo IPO Potential and the Alphabet Stock Forecast
The potential is, right now, the most interesting long-term piece of the whole story for anyone watching Alphabet stock upside. Waymo has logged over 20 million autonomous trips and hit a $126 billion valuation in its latest funding round. Up to $260 million of Pichai’s package depends on Waymo’s per-unit valuation growing over the next three years — which the market reads as a pretty clear signal that an IPO is somewhere on the roadmap. That alone adds a whole layer to the Alphabet stock forecast that analysts haven’t fully priced in yet.
On that forecast, analyst Daniel Sparks sees GOOGL reaching around $600 within five years — roughly double where the GOOGL stock price sits today — if AI investments pay off and Google Cloud keeps scaling. Cloud operating income more than doubled year over year in Q4 2025, hitting $5.3 billion, so the trajectory is there.
GOOGL Stock Price and What’s Moving Alphabet Stock Upside Right Now
The GOOGL stock price is sitting at around $298 at the time of writing, down about 15% from the 52-week high of $349 set in early February. Most of that pullback is macro — Nasdaq futures were down nearly 1.5% and the VIX spiked over 24% — and not really a reflection of Alphabet’s own numbers. Q4 2025 revenue came in at $113.8 billion, up 18% year over year, and net income jumped 30% to $34.5 billion.
The CEO compensation plan reads less like a pay disclosure and more like a public statement of intent from the board – and right now, that statement is squarely about where Alphabet stock upside is going over the next three years.