Apple stock forecast talk got a lot more interesting overnight, and it’s mostly because of one analyst who just doubled his outlook on the iPhone Duo. Shares of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) edged about 0.5% higher early Thursday, which is a nice change after three losing sessions in a row pushed the stock down to $315.34, a two-week low. AAPL stock today is still trying to recover from that slide, and right now Wall Street looks torn between raising its Apple stock price target and trimming its prediction, and a lot of that split comes down to what people think about the new $1,999 iPhone Duo.
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Apple Stock Forecast: Duo Revenue And Price Target Outlook
An Analyst Doubles His Duo Estimate
Gene Munster, who’s a managing partner over at Deepwater Asset Management, is one of the analysts driving this Apple stock forecast update. AAPL stock today opened higher, which lines up with some of that early Duo optimism. He raised his projection for how much of Apple’s fiscal 2027 iPhone revenue the iPhone Duo could bring in, doubling it from 5% up to 10%, and he’s calling it Apple’s biggest launch since the AirPods.
Munster said:
“The Duo matters because this is the first time since AirPods in December, 2016 that Apple announced a new product people will really want.”
He also thinks that if about a third of Pro Max buyers end up switching over to the Duo instead, total Apple revenue could climb by roughly 2.5% in fiscal 2027. The device starts at $1,999 and goes up to $3,199 for the biggest storage option, and there’s also a leasing plan that runs close to $58 a month. This Apple stock forecast bump also factors in Apple’s split iPhone cycle, since Apple held back the standard iPhone 18, the 18e and the Air 2 until spring. Munster thinks that could push March-quarter revenue growth closer to 20%, well above the Street’s current estimate of 14%.
Wall Street Still Split On Price Target
Not everyone agrees though, and that’s part of why the Apple stock price target range is so wide right now. Morningstar bumped its fair value estimate up to $290 from $285, but that still points to about an 8% downside from where the stock is trading. Jefferies, on the other hand, kept its Underperform rating and its $263.66 target in place, which implies a 16% downside, and the firm says the cheaper base Duo is a sign Apple is leaning more toward volume than margin. That gap between Morningstar and Jefferies is part of why the Apple stock forecast picture is so mixed at the moment.
Patrick Moorhead, who’s the chief analyst over at Moor Insights & Strategy, had a more skeptical take on Apple’s tech overall. He said:
“I can’t help but compare Apple and NVIDIA when I’m watching an Apple keynote. Apple technology helps create the best selfies. Inspires content creators. Nvidia technology helps cure diseases. Eliminates traffic fatalities.”
Retail Sentiment And What It Means For The Apple Stock Forecast
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits also flipped from bearish to bullish just a day earlier, and message volume jumped by 467% in that same 24-hour window. That kind of shift in mood really changes the Apple stock prediction conversation, at least for the short term, and it’s exactly why the Apple stock forecast talk has gotten louder this week.
Source: Stocktwits
Ross Gerber, who runs Gerber Kawasaki, summed up the mood over at Apple Park pretty well. He said:
“Generally a good vibe in the HQ today watching the Apple event. $2k for a new foldable phone. I liked the new phone, but is ‘$2k the new $1k’?”
At the time of writing, the Apple stock forecast really comes down to whether the iPhone Duo’s early buzz turns into actual upgrades, or whether it just stays hype. AAPL stock today is still sitting below both Morningstar’s and Jefferies’ Apple stock price target levels, and the gap between the bullish and bearish Apple stock prediction camps probably won’t close until preorders open on October 16.