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ASML stock is in focus right now after the Dutch chipmaking tool maker posted third-quarter net profit of 4.96 billion euros, far above the 4.1 billion euros analysts expected. The ASML earnings report also raised the floor of the ASML revenue forecast for 2026, which now sits between 44 billion and 45 billion euros. Some customers also want to book orders for 2029 and 2030, which could reshape the ASML stock forecast and every ASML stock price target.
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ASML Earnings Beat Estimates as AI Demand Drives Long-Term Growth
For the July to September quarter, ASML posted record net sales of 11.66 billion euros, a touch under the LSEG consensus estimate of 11.72 billion euros. Profit did the heavy lifting, with gross margin at 57.5%, above guidance, according to the company’s press release. For ASML stock, that margin matters as much as sales.
Customers Already Want Orders For 2029 And 2030
Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, said this in the press release:
“Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments.”
He also stated:
“In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030.”
Fouquet added that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 won’t fully meet demand. ASML is the only company making extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, and TSMC and Samsung committed to its next-generation High NA EUV tools this quarter. That lock-in helps explain why ASML stock and the ASML stock forecast have stayed strong all year.
Fouquet had this to say about capacity:
“Given this, we are investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.”
ASML Revenue Forecast And Q4 Guidance Move Higher
The lower end of the full-year ASML revenue forecast rose from 43 billion to 44 billion euros, roughly $49.3 billion to $50.4 billion for the range. ASML had already lifted its outlook in July.
Fouquet stated:
“We expect fourth-quarter 2026 total net sales between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion, with a gross margin around 57%.”
The top of that range sits above the 14.2 billion euro LSEG consensus. ASML stock has rallied 56% so far in 2026, so expectations were high going into these ASML earnings. Before the report, TipRanks data cited by TradingKey showed an average ASML stock price target of $2,470.81, with a high of $2,865.89 and a low of $2,100, and all six analysts rated it a Buy.
China And Export Limits Still Weigh On ASML Stock
ASML still expects China to make up 20% of total business. The company can’t sell EUV and some DUV tools there, and a July report from The Information said an unnamed Chinese firm had started building an immersion DUV machine. Analysts questioned how fast China could scale it, so it stays a longer-term risk for ASML stock.
At the time of writing, the next ASML stock price target changes will likely depend on how much extra 2028 capacity ASML can add and whether the 2029 and 2030 interest turns into firm orders. For ASML stock, demand stretching toward 2030 keeps the ASML stock forecast firmly tied to AI spending.