Bitcoin’s run-up to $44K this week was a much-needed respite but an overall dismal tone was apparent on the daily chart. A head and shoulders breakdown loomed largely and a death cross created more jitters in the market. Moving into a new week, bulls would have to remain vigilant at $40K to avoid bears from completely taking over the market.
Bitcoin Daily Time Frame
Bitcoin’s daily chart highlighted an active head and shoulders pattern- a setup that leads to a breakdown once the candles slip below the “neckline”. Since BTC’s mini-rally was rejected at its daily 20-SMA (red) and its on-chain metrics remained dull, bearish pressure could be reapplied at $40K.
Unfortunately, a close below BTC’s neckline at $40K would have a drastic effect on the market. If an early pushback is not offered at $37,500, the price could slip up all the way to a demand zone of $30,000-$29,400. A death cross between the 20-SMA (red) and 200-SMA (green) would add more fuel to the fire by accentuating losses.
However, a close above $45K and daily 20-SMA (red) would invalidate the setup. Should gains extend above $47,000, bulls would have an upper hand at BTC’s 200-SMA (green). Talks about an uptrend would be justifiable once BTC strengthens above the right shoulder at $52K.
Indicators
For the moment, BTC’s defense at $40K was fortified by a buy signal on the MACD and a breakdown was not imminent. The same was backed by successive green bars on the Awesome Oscillator (not shown). However, buying pressure would be limited till each of these metrics recovered above their respective mid-zones. The daily RSI lamented below 40 and disregarded any optimism that came from the MACD and Awesome Oscillator.
Conclusion
A head and shoulders setup pit Bitcoin at risk of a large sell-off should its price slip below the neckline ($40,000). Losses could be felt till $30,000 in an extreme bearish outcome. To negate the pattern, it was imperative for BTC to close above $45,000 and its 20-SMA (red).