Last week, Bitcoin reached a new yearly low of $26,700 in the market. The price point was last observed back in December 2020, and now fresh speculations are out regarding BTC’s market bottom. The profit-taking has come full circle from the beginning of 2021.
Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run took place after it dislodged its previous all-time high at $20,000. After crossing $25000-$28,000, it went on to register new heights above $50,000. The bull run is more or less finished now, and analysts are speculating a new low. In this article, we will analyze the chances of BTC reaching $20,000 again, or whether the gap between $20,000 and $26,700 will act as a strong bounce-back region.
Bitcoin Futures Traders are Whales; How does it matter?
Bitcoin spot trading has taken a back seat over the past few weeks. Data suggested that futures trading volumes had possibly more control on the price and now, Whales were taking over in that course of action.
According to Ki-Young Ju, CryptoQuant CEO, Bitcoin futures traders are dominantly whales at the moment. Over the past two weeks, 50,000 BTC has flown into Bitfinex and 39,000 BTC used to open long-term long positions. On 15th May, BTC longs on Bitfinex reached an all-time high. There is clear bullish sentiment from these whales.
Additionally, Young-Ju explained that Bitcoin could drop below $20,000 only if these $1.17 billion worth of BTC get liquidated. Let us analyze other datasets to have a larger understanding of the market.
Are Whales accumulating or not?
While the above argument was based on the activity of Bitfinex futures traders, the above chart gives a better understanding of the actual Whale movement. According to Whalemap.io, between 9th May to 15th May, approx 320,000 BTC have witnessed Whale inflows.
It means $9.5 billion worth of BTC has been absorbed by Whale addresses, and most of these were bought for under $30,000. The cluster is evident in the chart. Hence, there is a good possibility that the present range between $28,850 and $30,000 is good support.
Is $20,000 actually in the past for Bitcoin?
Now fundamentally, Bitcoin’s whale data is substantially positive. However, the current macro-economic is far from stable. With higher interest rates and rising inflation, credit and debt on the larger market can get easily wiped out. Such events lead to higher margin calls, and while $1.17 billion is huge, liquidations can still take place. Right now, Bitcoin dropping down to $20,000 is still not in the cards, but any more slips in the overall market can change the scenario in a split second.