As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving approaches, with just three days left until the event on April 20th, crypto analysts are eagerly analyzing past trends and speculating on the potential price action surrounding this significant milestone.
In a recent video titled “Bitcoin Halving Price Predictions,” analyst Eric Krown Crypto delves into the historical data and offers insights into what to expect in the coming days and weeks.
Looking back at the previous three halvings, a clear pattern emerges. In November 2012, a consolidation period preceded the halving of Bitcoin, after which the price established a low and continued to rise.
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Similarly, in 2016, the halving took place during another consolidation period, with the low occurring about 3.5 weeks after the event. The most recent halving occurred in May 2020, when the low coincided with the halving date, followed by a sustained upward trend.
Eric suggests that waiting until the actual halving date to make any significant moves may reward patience. He notes that while there is excitement surrounding potential Bitcoin ETFs from China, the country remains a wildcard, and their actions can be unpredictable.
Potential Bitcoin Bounce and Resistance Levels
In the short term, Erice believes that Bitcoin is likely to bounce and test the $68,400 level. He says that this aligns with the median of the weekly Heikin-Ashi Point and Figure Distribution Bands (HPDR bands).
This level also coincides with the daily bounce target of around $67,500. However, as long as Bitcoin remains below this level, there is still potential for corrections, with the 382 level at $59,300 being an area to watch closely.
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Long-Term Value and Production Cost
According to Eric’s Bitcoin production cost fundamentals chart, the area around $60,000 is a very good long-term value for Bitcoin, despite the short-term uncertainties. The chart indicates that Bitcoin’s current basement price is $30,000, and after the halving, it will double to $60,000. Historically, Bitcoin has only traded below the basement price for brief periods, presenting excellent buying opportunities.
As the Bitcoin halving draws near, investors and traders are closely monitoring the price action as well as potential risks and opportunities. While past trends suggest a low may occur on or shortly after the halving date, the crypto market is known for its volatility and unpredictability.