Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have started to show some positives after a brutal past week that accounted for a 17% capital loss. The Awesome Oscillator’s twin peak setup and MACD’s steady recovery presented chances of a brief upswing moving forward. At the time of writing, ETH traded at $3,099, down by 1.5% over the last 24 hours.
Ethereum 4-hour chart
Ether was trading close to the upper boundary of its down-channel- a pattern that emerged following a broader market sell-off on 5 January. For the moment, an immediate breakout would likely be rejected since the 24-hour buy volumes were not encouraging. However, a higher low formed at $3060 could reignite buying interest and trigger a breakout.
This would also give time for the RSI and Awesome Oscillator to overcome the resistance around their mid-lines. A highly bullish outcome would see ETH cap a 14% upswing to its 61.8% Fibonacci level, hovering around $3,486. The daily 200-SMA (not shown), which coincided with 61.8% Fib, would halt any further advancements unless a broader market rally offers support.
Should ETH slip below $3,060, a lower low can be expected around $2,900. The market would be exposed to another sell-off if bulls fail to hold ETH above this support.
Indicators
The Awesome Oscillator’s higher lows suggested that ETH bears were losing steam over the last couple of days. A bullish twin setup was an encouraging sign as it is usually spotted before an incoming price surge. However, it was worth noting that ETH traded below its daily 200-SMA (green), and bullish setups are often discounted when short-selling is a threat.
The MACD was amidst a steady recovery after tagging over a 3-month low on 7 January. Similar to the Awesome Oscillator, the MACD needed to recover above its half-line for safer long bets.
Conclusion
Ether looks promising but it needed to close above its channel to generate more bullish momentum. Until then, any long bets made would carry a high degree of risk.