The future of the US dollar is one of the most hotly debated topics in finance right now, and J.P. Morgan’s read on it is a bit different from what most on Wall Street are saying. While the US dollar dropping has historically been treated as a crisis signal, the bank is looking at the same data and arriving somewhere else entirely. As of February 19, 2026, the Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting at around 97.75 — down roughly 8.1% over the past year — and the future of the US dollar in 2026 has become a genuine divide. Most major banks place their 2026 dollar prediction for DXY somewhere between 92 and 100, but how analysts are interpreting that range is where things get interesting.
Also Read: BRICS Launches Brazil-Based Payment System, Challenging Dollar Power
How US Dollar Dropping Shapes Wall Street And JP Morgan’s 2026 Forecast
J.P. Morgan’s Official Stance
In March 2025, Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya led the currency team to a bearish position on the dollar, and the team has held that stance ever since. In their view, the US dollar will weaken further, though less drastically than before. The team estimates a fall of approximately 3% through mid-2026, with higher-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone absorbing most of those losses, as interest-rate differentials pull capital away from US holdings. JPMorgan pegs that bearish call against Fed policy expectations and also against the notion that the greenback will find very limited room to strengthen.
Chandan and her team wrote:
“Our outlook for 2026 remains net bearish, though the expected decline is smaller and more uneven than the weakness we foresee for 2025.”
The Future of the US Dollar and What Could Reverse It
The strategists mentioned they would become decisively bullish on the dollar should economic data become good enough to delay Fed easing, then even stronger growth would do the trick, effectively eradicating the Fed dovish bias, they said, which would make them reverse their stance altogether. Wall Street is not entirely cohesive on this either. One example is Morgan Stanley, which believes that there could be end-of-year recovery to 99 to 100, partly due to fiscal stimulus, but also due to huge inflows of capital into the US related to AI. The vast majority of 2026 dollar predictions across the street suggest DXY stays between 92-100 with a low around 94 towards Q2 as likely the Fed will reduce rates twice.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Chief Global Strategist David Kelly also addressed the future of the US dollar directly, stating:
“This should allow the dollar to resume its decline, albeit at a slower pace than in early 2025.”
Also Read: US Dollar Crash Incoming: BofA Survey Shows Record Short Positioning
What J.P. Morgan thinks about the dollar and what the rest of Wall Street thinks are not quite the same thing. Predictions for the dollar in 2026 remain split across major banks, and the future of the US dollar will keep shifting as Fed policy expectations change throughout the year. J.P. Morgan’s message, at its core, is a measured one — the future of the US dollar means managed weakness, not a breakdown, and the biggest actual risk to markets is not the currency dropping but the already elevated valuations sitting in US equities.