Morgan Stanley published a recent report to clients predicting further upside in gold. The XAU/USD index is trading in the $4,185 range on Friday and is up 25 points, representing a 0.62% surge. The prices have remained rangebound at $4,000 with no major upswing or dip in November.
Revised Gold Price Prediction: Morgan Stanley Goes Bullish on the Commodity
Leading investment bank Morgan Stanley wrote that gold could reach $4,500 by mid-2026. That’s an uptick and return on investment (ROI) of approximately 7.5% from its current price of $4,185. The bank cited central bank accumulation as the primary driver of the increase in value.
Central banks “are still adding gold to their reserves,” wrote Morgan Stanley in the note. They added that any price pullback from here adds to the buying opportunity before prices reach $4,500.
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If the bullish price prediction wasn’t enough, Morgan Stanley wrote that gold is their top commodity pick for 2026. “Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower.
“We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling US dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases, and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset,” wrote the bank’s analyst. The US dollar heading south is the perfect catalyst for the commodity to move north.
Not just from central banks buying the metal, Morgan Stanley sees support for the metal from various areas. “Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also been strong buyers of gold, signaling renewed interest from institutional investors. ETFs backed by physical gold posted a record inflow of $26 billion in the third quarter. Their total assets under management ended the quarter at $472 billion, also a record.”