The price of Gold Futures is extending its recent gains thanks to hopes of a US-Iran deal growing, with the futures price now up to $4,748. Gold is up 18% in the last six months, with Thursday’s 3% gain, marking the biggest daily advance since late March. Silver is also up more than 5%.
Falling energy prices weighed on bond yields, while the dollar fell to pre-war levels — both tailwinds for gold, which is priced in the US currency and doesn’t offer interest. As the US is waiting for Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a response is expected in the coming days. Should good news come and a deal be reached, Gold could reclaim $5,000 quickly, according to numerous analysts.
Since the inception of the US/Israel-Iran war, Gold (XAUUSD) has fallen by over 10%, putting its safe-haven status at risk. Once the war began, the odds of an interest rate cut have plummeted as surging oil prices risk raising inflation. The Fed’s continued hesitance to cut rates doesn’t help this cause either. Gold tends to benefit from lower interest rates, as the opportunity cost of owning it relative to interest-bearing assets, like U.S. Treasuries, is less. Therefore, the precious metal has struggled, but a rally appears near with the hopes of the war coming to an end.
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Furthermore, leading investment firms are becoming bullish again on the precious metals market, particularly Gold Futures. Deutsche Bank predicts the XAU/USD index could breach $8,000 over de-dollarization. The bank wrote in a note to clients that emerging economies are increasingly diversifying their central bank reserves by sidelining the US dollar by procuring gold.
Deutsche Bank added that developing countries added over 225 million troy ounces of gold since 2008, highlighting that de-dollarization will push the XAU/USD prices up in the charts. Countries such as China, Russia, India, Poland, and Turkey remain the biggest buyers of gold. In addition, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Kazakhstan are not too far behind in accumulation. Countries in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are significantly increasing their gold reserves as de-dollarization expands, Deutsche Bank emphasized. That accumulation will likely boom more come the end of the US-Iran war, which as a result could send Gold Futures north of $5,000 and toward that ultimate $8,000 goal.