Goldman Sachs’ copper supply forecasts have been slashed following Indonesia’s Grasberg Mine disruption, and the bank is now predicting a copper supply deficit of 55,500 tons for 2025. This dramatic shift from what was a projected surplus highlights how Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure declaration is reshaping global copper price forecast expectations right now.
Grasberg Mine Disruption Sparks Global Copper Supply Shortfall
The September 8 incident at Grasberg Mine has created some pretty substantial market concerns, with Goldman Sachs copper supply projections now reflecting a total loss of 525,000 metric tons. The disruption occurred when heavy mud flow trapped workers underground, which forced Freeport-McMoRan to halt operations at what is the world’s second-largest copper mine.
Goldman Sachs stated that the production loss exceeds their typical allowances for global supply disruptions, leading them to cut global mine production growth estimates for 2025 to 0.2% from 0.8%.
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Supply Cuts Drive Market Rebalancing
Grasberg will see its production fall by 250,000 to 260,000 tons in 2025 and even by 270,000 tons in 2026. Goldman Sachs noted that fourth quarter 2025 production from Grasberg will be very low, as the unaffected areas could restart mid-quarter.
Goldman said:
“The unaffected portion accounts for about 30%-40% of Grasberg’s annual production capacity.”
The rest of the mine will restart sometime in 2026, which means we’re looking at an extended period of reduced output that will affect global markets.
Price Forecasts Adjusted Higher
Goldman Sachs anticipates upside risks to its December 2025 copper price forecast of $9,700 a ton, and they propose that prices may actually come in between $10,200 and $10,500 a ton. The imbalance in copper supply has changed their balance projection of 105,000 tons to the deficit projection of 2025 in the world balance.
The bank reaffirmed its long-term bullish copper price forecast of $10,750 a ton by 2027, citing challenges including deeper mines, lower grades, and harder ore extraction compounded by other disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula and also El Teniente mines.
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At the time of writing, the London Metal Exchange is trading benchmark three-month copper prices at $10,277.50 a ton, already reflecting some of the supply concerns that have emerged from recent mining disruptions along with broader market volatility.