Gold prices hit an all-time high of $3,055 in March while the US dollar hit a low of 103.60 the same month. Both the assets are moving in the opposite direction changing the dynamics of the global financial order. The US dollar had rallied after Trump won the election in November hitting a high of 109.60. It took a U-turn after he took office in January falling to 103.60 displaying weakness.
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On the other hand, gold has skyrocketed in price soaring nearly 16.75% year-to-date while the US dollar dipped 4.65% YTD. The Trump-induced tariffs has weakened the US dollar’s prospects with leading currencies outperforming the greenback. If the trade wars continue, the USD has more chances of heading south threatening its position in the currency markets.
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Gold Clear Winner Against the US Dollar
Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities said that institutional funds, central banks and retail investors are flocking towards gold and not the US dollar. He stressed that central banks are diversifying their reserves with gold to end dependency on the US dollar.
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“Central bank buying activity in gold has been a secular trend,” sidelining the US dollar, Ghali said to Kitco News. “Since 2010, I’d say, the breadth of central banks buying gold has started to increase. And the fact of the matter is, there’s a really wide variation as to why these central banks are buying it.”
“We actually started off the year with a pretty stellar rally in the US dollar,” Ghali noted. “This is very counterintuitive, but if you’re a country who wishes to diversify away from the US dollar, you might take advantage of those moments in time when the US dollar is pretty strong in order to sell US dollar-denominated assets and buy non-US dollar-denominated assets, one of which is gold. That currency depreciation pressure is really what, counterintuitively, has been fueling central bank buying activity in gold this year,” he summed it up.