Is Micron still a buy after a 918% run? That is the question a lot of investors are asking right now. Back in September 2024, Micron management locked in its HBM order book for both 2024 and 2025. Pricing was already set. That two-year sellout, combined with the AI semiconductor stocks boom, sent MU from a 52-week low of $103.38 to a peak of $1,079 on June 3. At the time of writing, MU trades at $935.89, down 1.41% on the day. The Micron stock forecast for Q3 2026 calls for $33.5 billion in revenue. The Micron earnings outlook also targets an 81% gross margin. Both numbers have made MU one of the more debated names in AI semiconductor stocks coverage right now.
Micron Stock Forecast, Price Target And AI Earnings Outlook
The Sellout Story That Built The Bull Case
The signal was in the earnings calls long before the stock moved. By March 2025, HBM revenue crossed $1 billion in a single quarter. Management also forecast the total HBM market would hit over $25 billion for calendar 2025. More factory capacity went toward HBM. That left less room for standard DRAM. Prices across the memory segment rose. Margins followed. Management flagged it directly, noting the HBM ramp was “contributing to tightness at the leading edge and constraining non-HBM DRAM supply.” The demand side had no ambiguity either. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated:
Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron Technology:
“We are only able to meet about 50% to two-thirds of our demand from several key customers, and the gap between the demand and supply for all of DRAM [remains wide].”
Q2 Results And The Micron Earnings Outlook For Q3
Q2 2026 revenue came in at $23.9 billion. That is up 195% year over year and 76% from the prior quarter. Cloud memory gross margin hit 74%, up from 55% a year earlier. The Micron earnings outlook for Q3 guides to $33.5 billion in revenue and an 81% gross margin. Earnings per share are targeted at $18.90, up from $12.07 last quarter. On the analyst side, TD Cowen raised its Micron stock price target to $660 with a Buy rating. DA Davidson initiated at $1,000, also Buy. Of the 44 analysts covering MU right now, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Also Read: When Will Micron Stock Hit $1,500? Massive Breakout Ahead
Is Micron Still A Buy At These Levels?
Is Micron still a buy when it trades at 50 times trailing earnings? The forward P/E says yes. Right now it sits at just 10, which puts MU in value territory. The five-year PEG ratio is 0.37. Anything below 1 signals undervaluation relative to long-term earnings growth. The last time the forward P/E was this low, back in late August 2025, MU was at $119. It closed 2025 at $285. The average Micron stock price target across 44 analysts sits at around $717, roughly 30% below where MU trades at the time of writing. The target range runs from $249 to $1,750. That spread reflects real disagreement about AI semiconductor stocks valuations right now.
The June 5 drop of roughly 12% had little to do with Micron itself. Broadcom guidance and a strong jobs report spooked the broader market. Nvidia also confirmed Micron as an HBM supplier for its Vera Rubin chip architecture. That adds years of demand visibility. Not many stocks at this valuation can say the same. Is Micron still a buy heading into Q3? The Micron stock forecast and the locked-in order book both suggest the answer is yes.