Nvidia’s China AI market share has dropped from 95% to zero, and CEO Jensen Huang confirmed it himself. Rolling U.S. export restrictions shut the company out of what Huang called a $50 billion opportunity, and the fall happened faster than most analysts expected. At the time of writing, the NVDA price target averages $269.82 with a maximum estimate of $380, the Nvidia revenue forecast for next quarter stands at $78.62 billion, and the NVDA analyst rating from 70 analysts comes in as a firm “strong buy.” Wall Street, for the most part, keeps its confidence.
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Nvidia China AI Market Share Drops As NVDA Price Target Holds Strong
From 95% to Zero: How It Happened
The Nvidia China market share story unfolded over the course of 2025. Export restrictions that started in 2022 kept tightening, and on April 9, 2025, Nvidia got word from the U.S. government that even its H20 chips now needed a license for export to China. Those chips were specifically designed to stay within earlier restriction limits. The company took a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 fiscal 2026 tied to H20 excess inventory and purchase obligations it could no longer move.
At Citadel Securities’ Future of Global Markets 2025 event, Jensen Huang put it plainly:
“At the moment, we are 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to 0%.”
Speaking separately to the Special Competitive Studies Project, he went further:
“Conceding an entire market the size of China probably does not make a lot of strategic sense, so I think that has already largely backfired. Maybe it made sense at the time, but I think the policy really needs to be dynamic and needs to stay with the times. I think it would be fairly safe to say that having American chip companies and other companies in China makes a lot of sense.”
Analysts Still Back the NVDA Price Target
Source: TradingView
The Nvidia China AI market share collapse has not rattled Wall Street much. The NVDA price target, based on 58 analysts putting out 1-year forecasts, sits at $269.82 on average, a 35.96% upside from the current price of $198.45. The most bullish estimate reaches $380 and the floor sits at $140.
Source: TradingView
Out of 70 analysts rating the stock in the past three months, 57 gave it a “strong buy,” 8 said “buy,” 4 said “hold,” and only 1 issued a “strong sell.” Zero analysts went with an outright sell. The Nvidia revenue forecast of $78.62 billion for next quarter also points to a business that absorbs the China hit and keeps going.
Huang also framed the scale of what Nvidia lost:
“We went from 95% market share to 0%, and so I can not imagine any policymaker thinking that that’s a good idea, that whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world.”
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What Fills the Nvidia China AI Market Share Gap
Chinese companies like Huawei, Cambricon, Moore Threads, and MetaX now fill the Nvidia China AI market share gap with domestic hardware and software alternatives. The one edge Nvidia still holds in China is its CUDA software ecosystem, something local competitors have not yet replicated at scale. The Nvidia stock outlook and the NVDA price target both rest on demand well outside China now, mainly across U.S. data centers, Europe, and Southeast Asia. That story, right now, stays intact.