The Nvidia OpenAI deal has been restructured, and it is already changing the way analysts are looking at the Nvidia stock prediction. Instead of the Nvidia $100B infrastructure deal announced back in September 2025, a $30 billion equity stake is what is being finalized right now — and it could close as early as this weekend, according to CNBC. The Nvidia OpenAI deal, at its core, is still commercially intact: OpenAI is expected to reinvest a large part of that new capital right back into Nvidia hardware.
The Nvidia $30B investment is part of OpenAI’s latest funding round, which also includes Amazon, Microsoft, and SoftBank, valuing the company at somewhere around $830 to $850 billion. At the time of writing, the change in deal structure is being read by most analysts not as a retreat, but as a risk-reduction move — and that is exactly what is keeping the NVDA price target for 2026 firmly in bullish territory.
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Nvidia OpenAI Deal Explained And NVDA Price Target 2026
Why the Nvidia OpenAI Deal Changed
The original Nvidia $100B infrastructure deal was structured as a non-binding, multi-year commitment tied to data center deployments — and it was never really fully executed. The new structure is a direct equity stake at a $730 billion pre-money valuation for OpenAI, with no deployment milestones attached to it and also no hardware procurement guarantees. Jensen Huang reportedly raised concerns about OpenAI’s shifting business direction and the growing competition coming from Google and Anthropic, and that is seen as one of the main drivers behind the pivot to a more measured approach.
The Nvidia OpenAI deal explained in practical terms: Nvidia trades a risky long-term infrastructure commitment for equity exposure, and also keeps selling the chips OpenAI actually runs on. The Nvidia OpenAI deal, seen this way, gives the company upside in two directions at once — ownership in one of the world’s most valuable AI companies, and also an ongoing hardware revenue stream from the same company. It was also noted that the smaller deal is likely to attract less regulatory scrutiny than the original one.
NVDA Price Target 2026 — What Analysts Are Saying
The Nvidia OpenAI deal restructuring has not really shaken analyst confidence, and the Wall Street view on the Nvidia stock prediction is still firmly in Buy territory across the board, as Investing reveals:
| Firm | Position | Price Target | Upside | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Buy | $275.00 | +46.35% | Maintain | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Baird | Buy | $275.00 | +46.35% | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Citi | Buy | $270.00 | +43.69% | Maintain | Jan 07, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $250.00 | +33.05% | Maintain | Feb 05, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $250.00 | +33.05% | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | $250.00 | +33.05% | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Buy | $250.00 | +33.05% | Maintain | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | $245.00 | +30.39% | Maintain | Feb 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Buy | $240.00 | +27.73% | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Buy | $225.00 | +19.74% | Maintain | Jan 08, 2026 |
Based on 61 ratings collected over the past three months, the 12-month average NVDA price target in 2026 sits at $253.88, representing a 35.12% upside from current levels. The high forecast is $352.00 and the low is $140.00. Of those 61 ratings, 57 are Buy, 3 are Hold, and just 1 is Sell. Nvidia is also set to report Q4 earnings on February 25, with revenue expected to come in at around $65.5 billion — a number that could move some of those targets higher.
The Bigger Picture for the Nvidia Stock Prediction
The NVDA price target 2026 range currently sits between $225 and $275, and the Nvidia stock prediction from most institutions is being reinforced by the company’s multi-year deal to supply millions of AI chips to Meta, and also by revenue commitments that exceed $500 billion for its Blackwell and Rubin systems. Competition from Amazon’s in-house Trainium chips is being watched, but right now it hasn’t shifted the overall analyst stance.
The fact that it lightened a load of 100 billion dollars to 30 billion dollars is not being interpreted as retrogression, at least not in the eyes of Wall Street. The structural change is what is being viewed as strategically bullish to the Nvidia stock prediction at least. The initial proposal might have placed a serious financial liability on Nvidia, and the idea of abandoning it in favor of straightforward equity ownership is being seen as a less risky and less dirty option. This change has not pushed the NVDA price target 2026 estimates across the board down and that tells you something.
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Nvidia continues to be equity invested in one of the most valuable AI firms in the world, and continues to sell the chips that run the models of OpenAI, so the revenue aspect of the story has not changed at all. The risk profile changed and analysts appear to feel good about that. Even short-term reactions can be ambivalent, large investments always involve some uncertainty, and some investors would prefer Nvidia should only have chips as part of its business. However, the larger Nvidia stock outlook, influenced by this restructured deal and supported by a revenues runway of $500 billion-plus, Blackwell and Rubin systems, is headed in a single direction.