Prominent attorney Jeremy Hogan laid out possible scenarios after the judge denied the SEC an early appeal in its case against Ripple.
In a Twitter thread, Hogan explained that the SEC now has limited options, none particularly advantageous, as the denied appeal cements the current ruling that XRP is not a security.
The SEC can proceed to trial in April 2023 against Ripple executives, but it faces tough odds and a potential loss. Appeals can only happen after a final judgment, likely pushing resolution to 2026 or beyond.
Alternatively, the SEC could settle with the executives, then appeal the case against Ripple itself. This path would still extend the timeline into late 2026 at best.
Ripple vs. SEC resolution could extend to 2027
Hogan mentioned that even if the SEC were to win on appeal, further litigation before Judge Torres could push a final resolution to June 14, 2027, a date that appears distant and uncertain.
Full settlement is also an option but seems unlikely given the SEC’s stubbornness so far. This would offer the quickest end, around December 2023.
Barring an unforeseen development, Hogan believes the SEC is stuck with lengthy timeframes and doubtful outcomes. The summary judgment rejecting XRP as a security is settled law until at least 2026, based on the appeal denial.
Ripple now holds greater leverage to extract favorable settlement terms or even push for dismissal. But the SEC appears motivated to drag out litigation as long as possible, despite the slim chances of overturning the precedent. Hogan’s analysis highlights the uphill battle facing the SEC after multiple defeats.