SafeMoon’s consolidation has lasted an entire week now as buyers and sellers remain at a stalemate. Sentiment counties remain mixed during the weekend despite trading inflows into other penny alts. Judging by a violent downtrend since early January, bears were handed a sizeable advantage to win out the consolidation stage and inflict another sell-off. At the time of writing, SFM traded at $0.000018, down by 0.8% over the last 24 hours.
SafeMoon 4-hour Chart
It’s difficult to ignore SafeMoon’s streak of lower highs since touching record levels during week one of January. Bulls have had two buildup phases to flip SFM’s narrative but have failed on both occasions – one between 12-15 January and the other between 17-20 January. A third attempt was currently underway and was by far the longest buildup SFM has seen thus far in January.
However, like earlier attempts, bears had a greater chance to inflict more pain. This was because the candles sat below their 99, 50, and 20-period Exponential Moving Average lines, and sellers maintained both short and long-term control of SFM’s market. Short-selling is also common when the candles are parked below their benchmark EMA’s.
Having said that, SFM was nearing a major price swing. Its Bollinger Bands have remained contracted for seven days and periods of low volatility are followed by periods of high volatility. Hence, once a breakout occurs, sellers had a greater chance of forcing a close below $0.00001766. If no pushbacks are seen at $0.00001656, losses would extend to a support region between $0.00001561-$0.00001498.
To avoid bagging new monthly lows, bulls had to overcome sell pressure at the 78.6% Fibonacci (calculated through SFM’s hike from $0.00001656 to $0.003050) and the 50-period EMA. The resulting breakout would have to be backed by good buy volumes as bulls tackle the 99-period EMA (green). A highly optimistic outcome would see SFM climb back to the 50% Fibonacci level once a breakout comes through.
SafeMoon’s losses would amplify next week once the price slips below $0.00001766. Hence, a safer bet would be to short SFM below its immediate support instead of setting up long trades.