In the past 365 days, the S&P 500 index climbed 16%, one of its best 1Y performances in years. Entering the new year, the index is already up, looking to piggyback off its third-straight year of double-digit gains. For 2026, Wall Street’s price targets for the S&P 500 range from 7,100 to 8,100. All of the estimates imply upside from its 2025 close of 6,845, so what could your ROI be if you invest in the index at the beginning of the year?
With the stock market’s rebound from May 2025 onward, the top 500 companies in the index have entered the new year with plenty of potential. Markets are coming off a sputtering end to a roller-coaster 2025 that nevertheless ended with sizable gains for the major indexes. Further, every Wall Street forecaster tracked by Bloomberg is predicting that stocks will rally for a fourth consecutive year.
The S&P 500 ended 2025 at 6,845.5 points. Analysts at Bank of America expect the benchmark index to hit 7,100 by year-end 2026, suggesting a roughly 3.72% gain from now. Meanwhile, analysts at Deutsche Bank gave their own S&P 500 2026 forecast, projecting it to hit 8,000 points by year-end, suggesting a gain of 16.87%.
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When the S&P 500 has gained at least 15% in a year, the following year’s returns have averaged about 8%, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. The S&P in those years had an average decline of roughly 14% at some point before rebounding and climbing higher. It’s a reminder that stock market gains are not always straightforward, Turnquist said.
S&P 500 2026 forecasts are mostly bullish. While another 16% rally this year isn’t for certain, there is a high chance that it will gain double digits for a fourth straight year, especially with the economy’s worst fears behind it in 2025.