Tesla stock upside now hangs on two stories at once: a possible Tesla SpaceX merger and the Tesla Roadster reveal. Elon Musk paired the words “Tesla x SpaceX” with the Roadster livestream link, just as Barclays flagged that the two companies could announce a merger before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, due by December 6, Bloomberg reported. Neither company has confirmed any talks at the time of writing.
For Tesla stock, Elon Musk’s post comes at a tense moment. Yahoo Finance data shows a one-year analyst target of $397.83, about 9.8% above the October 15 close of $362.44, which anchors the current Tesla stock forecast.
Tesla Stock Upside: SpaceX Merger Odds and Roadster Reveal
TSLA is down roughly 19% so far this year, so any real catalyst matters, and that is why the Tesla stock upside debate keeps circling back to SpaceX.
Why The Tesla SpaceX Merger Talk Keeps Coming Back
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 a share, a $1.77 trillion valuation and also the largest IPO on record. The stock peaked at $225.64 within days and then slid, yet still closed October 14 at a $2.07 trillion market value. SpaceX also absorbed Musk’s AI company xAI in February, which ties Tesla stock and Elon Musk’s other ventures even closer together.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in his October 14 note:
“While the industrial logic of a combination had been in question, we believe recent management comments indicate they see key benefits of a combination.”
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at better than 80% by 2027, a call that feeds right into the Tesla stock upside case. Prediction markets are less sure, and they give a deal by year-end just 24% odds.
Barclays Sees A SpaceX Buyout As The Likelier Route
Barclays thinks SpaceX buying Tesla with stock is the more likely path. Levy estimates Tesla shareholders would get 0.7 SpaceX shares each, and the deal would leave Musk with roughly 37% of the equity and 56% of the votes.
Levy expects some financial synergies, but he sees the true value in vertical integration and calls the joint Terafab chip plant a key driver. Barclays also points to Tesla’s robotaxis and Optimus robots joining SpaceX’s AI work, where much of the Tesla stock upside could come from. On the July earnings call, Musk said:
“Obviously we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on a call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process.”
Can The Tesla Roadster Reveal Lift The Tesla Stock Forecast?
The Tesla Roadster reveal could grab the spotlight first and offer some short-term Tesla stock upside. Polymarket bettors give the sports car a 60% chance of flying for one second or more. Reports say a remotely operated Roadster will hover on SpaceX thrusters that fire compressed gas, a stunt that puts Tesla stock and Elon Musk’s rocket company on one stage.
History is a warning here, though. Wall Street punished Tesla’s past launches, and shares fell after the Cybertruck, the 2024 Cybercab robotaxi and a September Cybercab event. A flashy reveal on its own has rarely delivered lasting Tesla stock upside.
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A flight would settle the Polymarket bet, but only a filing would settle the merger. Until then, the Tesla stock forecast rests on how much Tesla stock upside the market sees in a founder who runs two trillion-dollar public companies.