There is no denying that the Magnificent 7 have been some of the hardest-hit stocks from 2025’s ongoing sell-off. Yet, there is one company that appears far more vulnerable than others. Although Tesla (TSLA) has seen 70% upside emerge, that hinges on one $1.7 trillion market and its potential.
The stock bounced back notably after disastrous earnings data came in. That report featured CEO Elon Musk confirming he was set to take more time away from his political obligations. However, the excitement of that has worn off, as the stock has continued to fall this week.
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Amid Its 2025 Fall, Tesla’s Fate Lies in the Hands of Its Riskiest Proposition
Throughout the first three months of the year, Tesla has struggled. That continued this week, as its price slipped for the first two days to start the week. TSLA shares are down around 6% over the last five days and trading at the $273 level. That being said, there is optimism surrounding what the stock could be.
In a recent analysis, Jefferies reiterated a buy rating on the stock and gave it a $300 target. However, it also noted that the company is “difficult” to evaluate. Its EV sales have plummeted, with all eyes on its “long-term strategic vision.” However, that brings forth the reality that Tesla and its 70% upside hinges on one $1.7 trillion market.
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According to CNN data analysis, the stock has a bull case price target of $470. Moreover, its median target sits at $307, with its bearish outlook dropping to lows of $115. That brings forth a wide range of outcomes, and the only thing that will protect the company is its venture into self-driving automobiles.
That move, and the arrival of the Robotaxi, will solidify Tesla less as an automaker and more as a robotics company. Moreover, it will be at the forefront of the developing industry. According to recent data, the market is valued at $1.7 trillion as of 2024 but is projected to reach a value of $3.9 trillion over the next nine years.
Musk himself has projected that the project will bring in billions in 2026. However, it all still hinges on the market itself actualizing. There is a lot of promise, but still a long way to go. With federal regulatory hurdles expected, many are concerned that it won’t come together the way that the company thinks. More importantly, it could fail to come together the way Tesla has bet it would.