The US tariffs continue to draw major mainstream momentum, one way or the other. In the latest tariff proceedings, the Manhattan Court of International Trade has blocked President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, giving the market a swift jolt. This development may end up eclipsing the US tariff policy regime, compelling Trump to issue a refund to all the countries in the worst-case scenario.
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Trump Tariff Dilemma: What Happened
The Manhattan Court of International Trade has issued a block for Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. This block is placed primarily because the court has considered these tariffs illegal, lacking authority under the IEEPA.
“The Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in imposing tariffs on all imported goods, calling an immediate halt to his signature trade war policy.”
BREAKING: The Manhattan-based Court of International Trade has reportedly blocked President Trump's proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 28, 2025
What’s the Worst That Could Happen? Perhaps a refund?
According to the Kobeissi Letter, Trump may end up issuing refunds, returning back the tariff money to all the nations involved if the court “upholds” the block on Trump’s tariff.
“What’s next after ‘reciprocal tariffs’ were struck down by the court? If the Court of International Trade’s ruling on “reciprocal tariffs” is upheld. ALL tariffs collected since April 2nd would need to be refunded. This simply means that Trump would have to return the money collected via tariffs since April 2nd, 2025.”
The amount that will be returned to the nations would be approximately $10 billion. This will also include the 10% baseline tariffs on countries.
At the same time, the US will be issuing a refund of $3.5 billion to China alone if this development gains momentum in the near future.
“Based on our calculations, which assume 2024 levels of US imports, this would be roughly $10 BILLION of tariff revenue. This includes the 10% baseline tariff on all countries as well as the higher rates imposed on select countries. The US would owe China alone a refund of roughly $3.5 BILLION. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has already said they will be filing an appeal. The trade war has entered a new era.”
What’s next after “reciprocal tariffs” were struck down by the court?
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 29, 2025
If the Court of International Trade’s ruling on “reciprocal tariffs” is upheld, ALL tariffs collected since April 2nd would need to be refunded.
Based on our calculations, which assume 2024-levels of US…
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