The US dollar 2026 prediction from JPMorgan projects around a 3% decline reaching into mid-year, with Federal Reserve policy easing and the BRICS de-dollarization movement applying downward force on the greenback. While robust U.S. growth and inflation stickiness could actually cap how much the dollar weakens, the JP Morgan dollar forecast keeps a negative stance. The USD decline 2026 trajectory is currently being determined by growing pressure from the BRICS currency shift, as bloc members decrease their dollar usage through developing payment systems and trade mechanisms denominated in national currencies.
Also Read: BRICS De-Dollarization in 2026: Turning Point for Global Dollar Use
JPMorgan Dollar Forecast 2026 Highlights USD Decline Amid BRICS De-Dollarization
Fed Rate Cuts Are Shaping the US dollar 2026 Prediction
The US dollar 2026 prediction is centered on anticipated Federal Reserve policy easing throughout the year. JPMorgan’s currency strategists, who are led by Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya, have projected that the dollar will decline around 3% through mid-2026 before it levels off. At the time of writing, this JP Morgan dollar forecast reflects concerns about labor market softness and the appeal of higher-yielding currencies in other markets.
“Our outlook for 2026 remains net bearish, though the expected decline is smaller and more uneven than the weakness we foresee for 2025.”
The strategists actually noted they would become “decisively bullish” on the dollar if economic data improves enough to halt the Fed’s easing cycle. A scenario where stronger growth “effectively eliminates the Fed’s dovish bias” could flip their view completely. This USD decline 2026 outlook is being watched closely by investors who are trying to navigate currency markets amid changing monetary policy expectations.
Economic Factors Are Driving the USD Decline 2026
While the JP Morgan dollar forecast points to continued weakness, the bank acknowledges robust U.S. growth and sticky inflation could actually temper the US dollar 2026 prediction decline. JPMorgan sees the greenback facing its steepest losses versus high-yield currencies—the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone stand out—where interest-rate differentials favor capital flows away from the U.S. Nevertheless, the bank’s overall stance remains negative on the dollar.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Chief Global Strategist, David Kelly, explained:
“This should allow the dollar to resume its decline, albeit at a slower pace than in early 2025.”
Some of the factors that have propped up the dollar are now weakening, JPMorgan Asset Management observed. The firm stated that “we expect the dollar to continue to weaken gradually, although some scenarios could lead to more disorderly moves.” This measured assessment of the USD decline 2026 recognizes competing forces, such as solid economic fundamentals at home that could partially counteract downward momentum.
BRICS De-Dollarization Is Accelerating the Currency Shift
The BRICS de-dollarization movement is adding significant pressure to the USD decline 2026 forecast as member nations are actively reducing their dollar reliance right now. Russia and China now settle around 90% of trade in rubles and yuan, while BRICS Pay has reduced USD usage in intra-bloc trade by roughly two-thirds. Analysts are viewing these developments as part of a broader BRICS currency shift that’s reshaping global finance.
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar actually clarified the bloc’s position and had this to say:
“I don’t think there’s any policy on our part to replace the dollar. The dollar as the reserve currency is the source of global economic stability, and right now what we want in the world is more economic stability, not less.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the BRICS currency shift at a recent event, stating:
“We are not refusing, not fighting the dollar, but if they don’t let us work with it, what can we do? We then have to look for other alternatives, which is happening.”
Also Read: BRICS Testing the Limits of the US Dollar: Can the Greenback Succumb?
The US dollar 2026 prediction also takes into account that BRICS initiatives include the BRICS Unit launch, along with CBDC interoperability frameworks and New Development Bank local currency loans. These alternative payment systems are being engineered to connect Russia’s SPFS, China’s CIPS, and also India’s UPI, which is creating infrastructure outside dollar-dominated networks. The BRICS de-dollarization push represents what analysts are calling a “De-dollarization 2.0” phase.
Long-Term Outlook for the US dollar 2026 Prediction
JPMorgan’s findings reveal an ongoing reconfiguration of worldwide financial systems, propelled by the JP Morgan dollar forecast analysis and the expanding BRICS de-dollarization push. The bank interprets the USD decline 2026 as a stepwise process, not an immediate overthrow of the greenback. Day-to-day market activity differs from the extended planning behind the BRICS currency shift toward minimizing dollar use, and this movement is likely to keep affecting the US dollar 2026 prediction as the year progresses and afterward.