Walmart (WMT) stock is up over 13% year-to-date, yet some Wall Street analysts are hinting that the stock could be a bit overvalued. WMT has outperformed market expectations in 2025, especially in earnings, thus the fears of a dramatic drop are clear.
Walmart’s share price has moved up 29% over the past year, signaling that momentum remains firmly in play. That growth comes as the company continues to roll out innovative partnerships, such as its live-streamed Collector’s Night series, and beats on revenue estimates. In the past month, the stock has traded a bit lower. Thus, narratives are building that Walmart’s (WMT) current market price sits well above its estimated fair value.
WMT stock came under pressure after its Q2 earnings results in August. The report showed Walmart reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, below the $0.74 the Street had forecast. This was the first quarterly earnings miss since May 2022. However, Walmart’s CEO remained optimistic that 2025 would end strongly. “As we replenish inventory at post-tariff price levels, we’ve continued to see our costs increase each week, which we expect will continue into the third and fourth quarters,” McMillon added. “As we go through the quarter, we’ll be watching price gaps. We’ll be watching gross margins. We’ll be watching bottom-line profitability.”
Also Read: Not Nvidia, But Oracle Is Winning the AI Stock Market Race
With Walmart stock currently trading at 102.20, analysts at Simply Wall St suggest that the stock is over $30 above its true value. The analysts give WMT a fair value of $74.67. Most analysts still label WMT stock a Buy or Overperform, with price targets ranging from $103 to $127. Additionally, WMT is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. While the price forecasts remain higher, there is potential that Walmart stock has hit an upper resistance level.