XRP is down roughly 62% from its all-time high of $3.66, and at the time of writing it sits at around $1.33, still well below the levels most investors were hoping for just a few months ago. A lot of traders are asking how much XRP could still drop before a real recovery kicks in, and analyst EGRAG Crypto has a fairly specific answer: the token may need to fall all the way to $0.78 before any serious upsurge can begin. That level also happens to be one of the most watched XRP support levels right now, and EGRAG sees it as the foundation for a potential run toward the XRP ATH and well past it.
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How Much Could XRP Drop and Which Support Levels Lead to ATH
The Weekly EMA That Keeps Rejecting XRP
A critical exponential moving average on the 1-week chart has shaped XRP’s price action since the token collapsed from its 2018 peak. EGRAG Crypto has followed this level throughout multiple cycles and indicates a trend: each time XRP breaks above this specific EMA in a downward trend and fails, a sharper move downward is the likely result. The specific EMA is not publicly disclosed anywhere beyond his subscriber area, but the trend has been of much focus amongst traders tracking XRP price forecasting patterns at the present time.
In the current cycle, XRP slipped below the EMA back in November 2025. A recovery attempt in early January 2026 pushed the price up to $2.41, and for a moment it looked like the breakout might actually hold. It did not. XRP dropped to a low of $1.15 on February 6 and has only partially recovered since.
How Much XRP Could Drop and Where the Key Floor Is
EGRAG’s analysis suggests a short-term bounce to around $2.20 is possible from current levels, but he expects another leg down to follow, this time toward $0.78. That level appears on EGRAG’s chart as the “Binance Lowest Wick,” a horizontal support that has held as one of the more significant XRP support and resistance levels across previous market cycles. EGRAG also sees it as the launchpad for a much larger move.
The projected upside from $0.78 is a 1,030% surge to $13, and the historical basis for that XRP price prediction is actually pretty solid. After XRP failed a similar EMA retest in Q4 2018, the token climbed from its lows all the way to $1.96 by April 2021, a move that also measured out to roughly 1,030%. EGRAG believes a similar pattern could play out this time around, with $13 as the next major target after the $0.78 XRP support level gets tested.
The XRP ATH and the Road to $200
The XRP ATH of $3.66 is not the ceiling in this scenario. After reaching $13, EGRAG expects a pullback to around $3.36, a level that lines up with the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle forming since XRP first started trading. A rebound from there could then carry XRP as high as $200, according to the same analysis.
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How much XRP drops in the near term and whether the $0.78 XRP support level holds when it gets there will likely determine how much of this plays out. The XRP price prediction for $13 and eventually $200 covers a long timeframe, and it all depends on that floor doing its job. Right now, the XRP support and resistance levels at $0.78 and $3.36 are the two numbers that matter most, and a new XRP ATH is a long way away either way.