Traders are asking right now where the floor is for XRP as the token sits at $2.35 on October 17, 2025, and the charts aren’t looking great. Analysts warn the cryptocurrency could test $2 or even drop below $1 by year-end, and this comes despite an upcoming ETF approval decision window between October 18-24. Price forecasts for 2025 show continued downward pressure building as volume spikes alongside price drops—a classic sign of profit-taking before the next move, and technical indicators suggest more pain ahead.
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XRP Price Prediction for 2025: Bearish Trends, ETF Approval, And Decline Risks
Technical Signals Point to Further Weakness: How Low will XRP Go?
At the time of writing, XRP dropped 6.36% in 24 hours, falling from $2.41 to $2.26, according to FXStreet data. But here’s the thing—trading volume jumped 42.74% to hit $7.9 billion even as prices declined, which typically means traders are taking profits or repositioning for what comes next. This kind of activity has been interpreted by market observers as institutional money moving out.
The 4-hour chart shows a Falling Three Methods pattern along with a Hanging Man candlestick formation, and both are pointing to increased selling pressure right now. The MACD indicator is moving horizontally in negative territory, and the Money Flow Index is declining too, reflecting liquidity flowing out of the asset. Both the VWAP and SMA20 are trading above current prices, confirming bears have control at this point.
Alan Tsagaraev, an independent trader specializing in cryptocurrency markets who has grown his capital more than tenfold since 2019, identifies critical support levels at $2.38, $2.26, $2.14, and $2.02. His base scenario suggests short positions below $2.38 with targets extending down to $1.74, and the RSI hovers near 40, meaning the price could either decline further or attempt a recovery, but momentum favors downside.
Analysts Project Potential Drop: XRP Back to $1
Technical analysts suggest XRP could fall to around $2.18 or lower in the near term, and some forecasts show it reaching $2.35 by late October. A breakdown below key support at $2.77 could push prices to retest $2.52, but more concerning scenarios exist. Some analysts claim the token could drop below $1 by the end of 2025, with one forecast suggesting it could hit as low as $1.35 by late 2025.
The question of whether prices will return to $1 isn’t just speculation anymore after market volatility triggered a $500 billion crash across the global crypto market last Friday. President Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect in November 2025 caused the sharp selloff, and China’s response could create additional turbulence. Market predictions for 2025 now include this macro uncertainty as a key factor.
ETF Decision Window Creates Uncertainty
The Securities and Exchange Commission will announce decisions on six spot XRP ETFs between October 18 and 24, 2025, and this regulatory milestone has been viewed by market participants as transformative. If approved, an influx of institutional capital through ETFs could push prices higher and reverse the current decline. However, rejection could accelerate the selloff and answer the question of where the bottom is with levels well below $2.
Grayscale stated in their analysis:
“Deregulation and increased market exposure to cryptocurrencies through exchange-traded funds in Q4 2025 are positive factors for cryptocurrencies, including XRP.”
The ETF approval remains uncertain though, and traders are in a wait-and-see mode right now. The market has already experienced significant volatility, and additional regulatory clarity is needed before confidence returns.
Fed Decision Adds Macro Pressure: XRP Price Prediction for 2025
The Federal Reserve will also determine interest rates on October 29 and this further contributes to uncertainty. A drop or leaving the rates as they are will help XRP and other cryptocurrencies, whereas an increase in the rate would probably force the prices of digital assets downwards.
Also Read: XRP Flat Price Alert: Quiet Buying May Trigger a Bullish Breakout
The release of the US PPI report on October 16 by itself caused the price movements in the crypto markets, and the traders are anticipating further volatility in the future. In the last seven days, the XRP has advanced by 19.47% to reach a market cap of 135.3 billion, although this weekly performance is not strong considering the technical indicators and future catalysts. The aggregation of chart patterns that indicate a weak position and decreasing momentum indicates that projections of 2025 may be between $1.35 and $2.18 in case of market-wide conditions worsening.
Traders are watching the $2 threshold closely right now, and if the price breaks below this psychological level, sellers could accelerate their activity toward the lower ranges that analysts have identified. The ETF decision window opens in days and the Fed meets at month-end, so the next few weeks will determine where the token finds support and whether buyers see the current weakness as an opportunity or whether a deeper correction will test levels from early 2024.