A recent study by economists identified 186 banks at risk. These banks face issues similar to that which caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. SIVB collapsed earlier this week due to the bank’s assets being diminished by increasing interest rates. This led to concerned customers withdrawing their uninsured deposits.
During the Federal Reserve’s swift rate-hike campaign, the economists evaluated individual U.S. banks. They assessed asset books and market value losses. Assets such as Treasury notes and mortgage loans can decrease in value. This happens when new bonds offer higher rates. The economists also analyzed the banks’ funding percentages. They focused on funding derived from uninsured depositors, those with accounts holding over $250,000.
Their findings suggest a potential problem. If half of these uninsured depositors were to withdraw funds rapidly from any of these 186 U.S. banks, even insured depositors might face impairments. This is due to insufficient assets available for all depositors. In such cases, intervention from the FDIC could become necessary.
It is crucial to note a significant limitation in this research. The study does not consider hedging strategies. These strategies may safeguard numerous banks against rising interest rates.
In their paper, the economists stated: “Our calculations suggest these banks are certainly at a potential risk of a run, absent other government intervention or recapitalization.”