As the highly anticipated 2024 Bitcoin halving approaches, some experts predict a potential surge to $435,000 per coin by the 2028 halving. Since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020, the pioneer cryptocurrency has witnessed an impressive 658% rally, currently trading around the $66,000 mark.
If historical chart patterns were to repeat, and Bitcoin’s price performed similarly to the current cycle, the $66,000 price point could escalate to a staggering $434,280 by the 2028 halving. However, it is crucial to note that Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies have seen diminishing returns over the years.
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The Trend of Diminishing Returns in Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Rallies
Prior to the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin’s price increased from virtually no value to $12.50, representing an astonishing 12,400% increase. By the 2016 halving, the price jumped 5,200% to $650, and by the 2020 halving, it rose 1,200% to $8,500.
This trend of diminishing returns has seen BTC;s average price rallies fall by 45% each cycle, leading to the current 658% increase. If this pattern persists, the next cycle could result in a 360% rally, translating to a Bitcoin price of approximately $303,600 at the 2028 halving.
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Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, told Cointelegraph, “Considering [the] halving and price trends from a very rigorous quantitative point of view, there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the halving event and BTC price. But history can be interpreted in many different ways. I certainly hope for $435,000 by 2028 but won’t put too much into it.”
As the BTC halving draws near, the path to a potential $435,000 Bitcoin price by 2028 remains uncertain.
While historical patterns and the trend of diminishing returns suggest a more conservative target of $303,600, the growing influence of Bitcoin ETFs and the cryptocurrency’s accelerated trajectory compared to gold offer hope for even greater gains.