August proved to be a challenging month for Bitcoin [BTC], marked by widespread fear, uncertainty, and negative sentiment. As a result, the cryptocurrency lost 10% of its value over the past 30 days. It looks like a similar sentiment is slated to persist in September as well. There are a wide range of predictions for this month. Sadly, most of them are bearish.
Numerous analysts have highlighted that about 80% of the time, September has witnessed a decline. Over the last ten years, Bitcoin has posted favorable returns in September on just two occasions, specifically in 2015 and 2016. In all remaining years, the cryptocurrency has faced a drop in its value during this month.
The prevailing expectation was for Bitcoin to experience a decline ranging from 7% to 13%. In four of the last ten years, Bitcoin’s value has decreased by 7% during September. Additionally, there have been two years with a 5% decline, and two years with a more significant 13% decrease in value. The most notable September downturn in Bitcoin’s history occurred in 2014, with a 19% drop. However, 2014 was a bear market year, and 2023 is not considered to be a bear market year just yet.
Therefore, it’s more plausible that BTC will undergo a relatively modest double-digit decline, akin to the 13% dip observed in 2019. Furthermore, considering that Bitcoin recently experienced one of its most severe August downturns, it is improbable for it to go through consecutive substantial drawdowns.
A downturn ranging from 7% to 10% remains a possibility. Based on historical data, a decrease of 7% to 10% during September is the most probable scenario. This would entail Bitcoin’s value falling within the range of $22,500 to $24,000. Several have their bets on $23,500.
Other factors that could make or break Bitcoin this month
ETF Applications: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC] has postponed its decision regarding several Bitcoin ETF applications, and this delay might exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price in September. If the SEC doesn’t grant approval to any BTC ETFs during the month, it could trigger a cryptocurrency market sell-off.
The approval of Bitcoin ETFs could serve as a substantial catalyst for the king coin’s price. ETFs would simplify institutional investors’ access to Bitcoin, potentially spurring a substantial surge in demand for the cryptocurrency.
CPI and FOMC Data: In mid-September, the release of the Consumer Price Index [CPI] and Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] data will occur. These reports carry the potential to significantly influence Bitcoin’s price, offering insights into the state of the U.S. economy and the outlook for inflation. All in all, September calls for a prudent approach in the BTC market. Nevertheless, a few factors, including the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs and favorable macroeconomic conditions, could lend support to its value.
Also Read: Bitcoin ETF Approvals Will Make Crypto Exchanges Suffer: Analyst
Is this the last chance to accumulate Bitcoin?
Some analysts contend that this could be the final opportunity to acquire BTC at a relatively low price. They argue that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain robust, positioning the cryptocurrency for a potential bull run in the upcoming months. This is further strengthened since the halving is expected to occur in April. Deutscher further said,
“..it’s likely to be a choppy month + Q4. But, in the lead-up to what is a probable inaugural spot BTC ETF approval, alongside the forthcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving, Q4 may present some favorable opportunities to accumulate.”
Also Read: Bitcoin ‘Least Volatile’ in 2023 Over Past Decade