CPI on October 13th: Another Cascade for the Crypto Markets?

Paigambar Mohan Raj
Source: Gulf Crypto

This week, the crypto and stock markets will face another challenge as the government releases its inflation report to the public. The crypto markets have faced difficulty to recover in the charts. Bitcoin (BTC) slid back below $20k on Friday and has remained in that range. Ethereum (ETH) on the other hand has not been able to breach the $1.4k level. Along with crypto, the stock markets too, remain strained.

The September inflation numbers will be published by the Federal Reserve on Thursday, October 13th. The results will dictate how much more aggressive the Fed’s interest rate hike will get. The numbers hold even more importance after the Labor Department’s September jobs data on Friday.

The US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, as the economy added 263,000 jobs last month. Investor hopes that FOMC members could abandon monetary tightening earlier than anticipated were shattered by the weaker-than-expected decrease in payroll increases.

According to Bloomberg forecasts, the consumer price index for September is predicted to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% over the course of the month. However, it is expected to moderate slightly year over year to 8.1% from 8.3% in August.

Additionally, the report’s core section, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, will be the focus of attention. Bloomberg questioned economists who predict that core CPI will increase to 6.5% over the course of the year from 6.3%. Nonetheless, it will moderate once again to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.

How will the crypto markets be affected?

All instances point to the fact that the Fed will most likely increase interest rates once again.

According to an analyst at the Bank of America,

“Persistent strength in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, mean the Fed is unlikely to pivot in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing.”

The analyst added the institutions expect another 75-basis-point interest rate hike in November. This would be the fourth such hike this year. Another increase in interest rates will make borrowing even harder, and hence investments even more unattractive. This could pave the way for another drop in crypto and stock markets.

At press time, the global crypto market cap stood at $985 Billion, up by 0.8% in the last 24 hours.