BitMEX founder, Arthur Hayes, was a recent guest on the Bankless podcast. The podcast delved into a host of topics such as why is Hayes writing so much lately, what’s causing inflation, why crypto, and most importantly, the Ethereum merge.
Hayes believes that the Ethereum merge may overcome a possibly negative macro environment. Whether or not the switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake is a good thing, is irrelevant, according to the Bitmex founder. However, the switch will bring in a structural change to the ETH infrastructure.
According to Hayes, the flows will be comparable to a Bitcoin halving. Moreover, users know the emission timetable following the merge. As long as the merge goes smoothly, the flows are guaranteed. Since it is the only currency of this magnitude making this changeover, fewer of it will be issued.
Hayes enjoys this trade because it allows him to be wrong about the FED while still profiting from Ethereum. This is due to the structural flows’ drastic changes, which may allow the price to rise enough to offset an unfavorable macroeconomic situation.
Hayes emphasized that many claims that transaction volume has significantly decreased since Defi summer. However, it continues to see the highest activity, and users continue to utilize these applications both now and after the merger.
Additionally, political judgments and political figures have no bearing on the merger.
Hayes’ Ethereum price prediction
When asked if the Ethereum merge is priced in, Hayes said that a lot of people don’t believe the merge will take place. He went as far as to say that even he is not 100% sure the merge will take place. Thus, only when the merge successfully takes place will he believe it has taken place.
Hayes was then asked what his target price for ETH is if the merge is not priced in. Hayes replied,
“I have bought calls for $3000 by the end of the year.”
He further stated,
“I am not worried about the FED because even if the FED raises rates by 20%, there will be a certain amount of demand for $Eth to use the dApps and the supply isn’t there to meet it.”
At press time, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,723.29, down by 1.2% in the last 24 hours.