Amidst the shifting dynamics in geopolitics, the currencies of certain countries were seen crumbling. The Indian Rupee, for instance, was hit with a setback. The currency went on to hit a lifetime low of 86.50 against the US dollar. Over the past two weeks, this period of lows has only gotten worse. The new year hasn’t brought any relief to the Indian Rupee. Meanwhile, the US dollar was seen gaining strength as Donald Trump prepares to get sworn in as the President.
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Diving Deep Into The Indian Rupee
The rupee took a major beating as it slipped to a notable drop against the dollar. The Indian rupee hit a new low as it broke through the 86 barrier vs the US dollar. In just one month, the value of the Indian Rupee has decreased by 1.90 percent. In addition, the Rupee fell 3.48 percent throughout the last six months.
Several factors played a part in bringing the rupee down. The first narrative surrounds the rise in crude oil prices. In futures trading, Brent crude, the world’s benchmark for oil, rose 1.44 percent to $80.91 a barrel. Following this spike, the Indian Rupee was under increased pressure.
The second factor is the better-than-expected US job data. The Indian rupee was also impacted by the expansion of the US market. Employers in the US created 256,000 new jobs in December, which was far more than the 160,000 jobs that analysts had projected in a Reuters survey. Amidst this, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%.
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Looking Into The Future
It seems like the Indian Rupee could be looking at a further drop. According to Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities, the rupee will reportedly dip to 87 by the end of March. Speaking about the same, he said,
“As per implied volatility trends, there are 80 percent odds that the currency will drop to 87 between now and March-end, up from 27 percent a month ago.”
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