SpaceX stock QQQ weight will rise even if shares go nowhere, because a wave of post-IPO lockup expirations is about to nearly triple the company’s public float. That SpaceX stock QQQ boost hinges on two dates: SpaceX earnings on Aug. 4, and a SpaceX lockup expiration just two days later that frees close to 1 billion pre-IPO shares.
SpaceX Stock QQQ Boost Hinges On Earnings And Lockups
A Small Float Explains The SpaceX QQQ Weight Gap
SpaceX floated only about 5% of its shares at the IPO, versus roughly 20% for a typical offering, according to Renaissance Capital strategist Matthew Kennedy. That thin float is why SpaceX QQQ weight has stayed small next to the company’s full valuation. As of July 22, the Invesco QQQ Trust held 39.7 million SpaceX shares worth $4.57 billion, a 0.98% portfolio weight.
Morningstar analyst Zachary Evens, who tracks passive strategies, said the SpaceX lockup expiration could raise that SpaceX QQQ weight even without a rally:
“an opportunity for SpaceX to claim a greater share of cap-weighted index funds”
Supply Could Outrun Demand From Index Funds
Pre-IPO investors gain the right to sell nearly 1 billion shares on Aug. 6, more shares than SpaceX sold during the June 12 IPO. Another 455.8 million shares may unlock around Aug. 20. Morningstar estimates more than 6.4 billion shares could eventually reach the market.
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens warned that investors will likely sell most of the newly freed shares rather than hold them:
“most of the available shares will come to market”
If the float triples as expected, the float-adjusted market cap behind this SpaceX stock QQQ boost could reach roughly $675 billion, placing SpaceX between Walmart and Intel in Nasdaq’s calculations.
Wall Street Is Split Heading Into SpaceX Earnings
SpaceX earnings are due Aug. 4, with analysts expecting revenue near $6.9 billion and a per-share loss around $0.22 to $0.28. Management will likely face questions on why SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch and why the company shifted away from Falcon 9 bookings.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an “Overweight” rating and a $300 price target on Friday, arguing that bearish sentiment has outpaced any real change in the business:
“uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI”
Also Read: When Will SpaceX Stock Go Back Up? Recovery May Wait Until 2027
SPCX shares closed at $115.07 on Thursday, down 2.68% on the day, and have fallen 26% over the past month as the market weighs the coming SpaceX lockup expiration against next week’s earnings. Whichever way the numbers land on Aug. 4, analysts expect the SpaceX stock QQQ boost tied to the float increase to move forward on its own timeline, separate from where the share price actually sits.