After a bearish month of losses, analysts suggest that the Solana SOL cryptocurrency could be set for a rebound in Q4 2025. Following Canary Capital’s SOL ETF filing and growing technical accumulation and institutional interest, the SOL altcoin has optimism mounting behind it. SOL has maintained some gains in the monthly and yearly charts, rallying 3.9% and 43.8%, respectively. However, SOL faces some risks of falling below the $200 mark. Could Q4 mark a change?
Canary Capital’s filing marks one of the first formal pushes to bring SOL into the regulated investment sphere. This filing specifically highlights staking and holding mechanisms, which distinguish the product from traditional spot offerings. At the same time, Grayscale recently launched its CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF, which includes Solana alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Cardano. There is a very high chance that the SEC will approve at least one Solana (SOL) ETF sometime this year. If not in 2025, there is a chance that the financial watchdog will green-light a spot SOL ETF in early 2026.
Solana (SOL) has some support at the $210 price level. The asset’s price could consolidate around the current level if liquidations slow down. Further volatility could be troublesome for SOL’s price. However, the SOL ETF filing could provide promise. Furthermore, crypto analysts have cited Solana’s structured movements through Wyckoff accumulation phases in the past year. For context, the four phases of the Wyckoff cycle in crypto are accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.
Also Read: Canary Capital Files for Solana ETF That Includes SOL Staking
The accumulation phase began in March 2024, when the SOL price ranged around $204 before dropping to $125 by July. The markup phase extended from July 2024, rallying to $293 before correcting sharply to $95 by April 2025. The distribution phase followed in April 2025, climbing from $95 to $187 in May before pulling back again to test support near $126 in June, amid growing trading volume.
Now in the markdown phase, SOL could begin picking up strength. The asset climbed to as high as $254 this month before a brief correction back to current levels around $201. However, following this markdown, a monster surge is likely, perhaps sending SOL beyond $400 towards nearly $500, a 157% surge from current prices. According to CoinCodex, Solana (SOL) will not fall below the $200 mark soon. The platform predicts SOL will dip to around $208 before making a recovery. CoinCodex analysts anticipate the asset to hit $235.77 on December 3 during Q4 2025.