A SpaceX stock breakout is the thing everyone in the SPCX chat rooms is talking about right now, and it’s easy to see why. The SpaceX stock price has pulled back hard, and the question on a lot of traders’ minds is whether an SPCX stock breakout soon is still on the table, or whether this is the start of a deeper slide. Shares closed Wednesday at $148.36, down $6.36, or 4.11%, on the day, though an overnight session pushed the SpaceX stock price back up to $148.80, up $0.44, which isn’t much, but it’s kept the SpaceX stock breakout story alive. A fresh SpaceX stock unlock also starts this week, and that’s landing right as new SpaceX stock prediction models point toward $165 if resistance finally gives way.
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SpaceX Stock Breakout: Price, Unlocks and Prediction Key Levels
Where The SpaceX Stock Price Stands Right Now
At the time of writing, SPCX had climbed toward $155 earlier in the month but couldn’t hold there, and it settled Wednesday at $148.36, down $6.36, or 4.11%, on the day. That’s also the number a lot of people mean when they ask about the SpaceX stock price today. Volume came in around 81.4 million shares, well under the 95.5 million average, so the move was fairly quiet compared to a normal session.
Market cap is still holding above $2 trillion, which is a big figure for a stock that’s only been trading since June. The 52-week range runs from $104.83 all the way up to $225.64, so this has already been a wild ride. Shares have also bounced back roughly 44% since the August low, and that recovery is a big part of why the SpaceX stock breakout talk has picked up again.
The SpaceX Stock Unlock Schedule That’s Fueling The Debate
A major lock-up expiration begins Wednesday, September 24, and it’s just the start of a bigger chain. Up to 328.4 million shares unlock on October 9, and another 328.4 million follow on October 24. A bigger batch, up to 1.3 billion shares, comes due after Q3 earnings, and then roughly 800 million more follow on December 8. Musk’s own stake, about 48.4% of the company, stays locked up until June 12, 2027, so he’s not part of this near-term supply. Each SpaceX stock unlock date between now and December adds a little more stock to work through.
Avery Marquez, director of investment strategies at Renaissance Capital, said:
“This is one of the most complicated, if not the most complicated lock-up we’ve ever seen.”
Jay Ritter, an IPO expert and University of Florida professor, weighed in on whether Musk might sell once he’s able to. Ritter said:
“He doesn’t have to worry where his next meal is coming from, and if he does, it’s probably going to be a tiny fraction of the, what, 6 billion shares that he owns.”
A SpaceX stock unlock on this scale doesn’t automatically mean a flood of selling, but it does raise the amount of stock that’s technically available, and that alone can slow down a SpaceX stock breakout even if the company itself is doing fine.
SpaceX Stock Prediction: Can SPCX Actually Clear $155?
On the 4-hour chart, price is sitting at $151.83, just above the 0.382 Fib level at $150.98. The three EMAs line up in a bullish order too, with the short one near $150.11 sitting above the middle one at $145.62 and the longer one at $144.86. Higher lows have also been printing since the $133.34 area, and that’s exactly the kind of setup people mean when they talk about a SpaceX stock breakout forming on the smaller timeframe. It’s also part of why a lot of SpaceX stock prediction talk right now leans toward the $165 target well before $179 comes into play. Hold above $150.98 and clear $153 to $155, and $165.24 opens up as the next target, with $179.49 possible after that. Lose $150.98 though, and the $144.86 to $145.62 zone becomes the next thing to watch, with $133.34 sitting as the floor under that.
Support near $150.98 has held for three straight weekly closes now, and a lot of traders are reading that as a good sign for the SpaceX stock breakout case. Still, a wall of unlocks is coming between now and December, and that’s the main thing standing between here and a real breakout past $155. Whether an SPCX stock breakout soon turns into something bigger will also come down to whether $150.98 keeps holding through earnings on November 3, and whether the latest SpaceX stock prediction models turn out to be right about $165.