Analysts at Piper Sandler have noted that the current price level of Tesla (TSLA) stock presents a solid buy opportunity. Specifically, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter writes that investors buying near today’s $420 share price are getting a big bonus — the Optimus robot business for free. Tesla has slowly begun to shift its primary focus away from its EV department and towards AI/robotics, with the Optimus Robot a crucial development.
Per Piper’s discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, Tesla is worth around $400 per share, but Optimus is not part of that analysis. The updated model breaks Tesla into 17 product lines, ranging from vehicles and energy storage to supercharging, in-house insurance, FSD subscriptions, and the robotaxi business. The sum of those lines using a 20-year DCF analysis suggests Tesla is worth $400 per share — “just shy of TSLA’s current share price.” “Critically, this analysis excludes Optimus, Tesla’s forthcoming humanoid robot,” Potter wrote. “In other words, at $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free’.”
The Tesla stock forecast for 2026 shows Wall Street genuinely split, with AI bulls pointing to robotaxi and Optimus progress on one side and bears citing a P/E ratio above 364 on the other. The TSLA price target consensus from 41 analysts currently averages at $398.42, which sits far below its current $446.45 price. Therefore, there is a strong case that TSLA shares could begin to slip as May progresses.
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On the other hand, Piper Sandler’s Potter reiterated a $500 price target on the stock, unchanged from his previous note. The math is straightforward: $500 PT minus $400 in modeled product-line value leaves $100 per share for Optimus, inference-as-a-service, and anything else not in the 17-line build. Potter believes that allocation is conservative. “Some would argue that’s far too low (we’re inclined to agree).”
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