The gold price breakout has been one of the most noteworthy developments of 2025. The precious metal rally has stunned global markets, with gold and silver price breakouts serving as a reminder of how quickly markets can bestow favors to topple the structures that were once considered solid in the long run. In addition to this, Morgan Stanley analysts have updated their gold price forecasts, stating that the metal may continue to extend its gains until 2026.
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Morgan Stanley Analysts’ Bullish Gold Call
According to a recent gold update shared by Morgan Stanley, the gold price rally may continue to extend its gains until 2026. The bank was quick to shed light on various reasons fueling the charge, which include a weak dollar and Fed rate cut calls as primary harbingers of this change.
“Gold prices, which are up nearly 50% in 2025, are likely to add more gains by the end of 2026. Gold surpassed the share of U.S. Treasuries in central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, while ETFs backed by gold keep posting record inflows.”
Speaking in detail about the extended gold rally, MG shared how gold has been surging in response to the rising geopolitical tensions, with the speculative Fed rate cuts stance driving the narrative forward.
“Gold broke a new record high on Oct. 10, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, and has continued to climb since then. On Oct. 21, the rally hit a wall, with a drop of as much as 6%, the biggest daily loss in 12 years. Still, gold has surged about 50% in 2025, cementing its status as one of 2025’s top-performing assets. The price increases are a reaction to major policy, geopolitical, and economic developments this year, including tariffs, the Israel-Hamas conflict, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and the U.S. government shutdown.”
The bank was quick to share a new price target for gold, adding that it seems the metal will hit $4400 by 2026.
“Morgan Stanley Research expects the rally to continue and revised its 2026 gold forecast upward to $4,400 per ounce, a significant increase from its previous estimate of $3,313. The new projection implies an additional gain of about 10% from early October to the end of next year.
Reasons Backing This Surge?
In addition to sharing the extended price forecast, Morgan Stanley also listed reasons that have been fueling the gold demand and may continue to help the metal soar higher in the future. MG dubbed inflation, a weak dollar, and the safe-haven quality of gold as primary drivers of the surge, helping the asset beat all odds in the domain.
“Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk,” says Morgan Stanley Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower. “We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling U.S. dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases, and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”
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