The US debt crisis may already be underway, and it is unfolding slowly instead of through a sudden bond market crash, according to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth. His US debt crisis warning comes as US debt servicing costs hit a record $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2026. Right now, the US national debt crisis is eating into the budget instead of forcing a default, and the US debt crisis in 2026 has turned into a slow squeeze that keeps getting tighter.
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US Debt Crisis, Rising Interest Costs And A Slow Economic Squeeze
Wigglesworth, who also wrote A Fabulous Debt, told The Long View podcast he is more worried about the US debt crisis than he used to be, though still less concerned than most people.
Robin Wigglesworth had this to say:
“I think the US is maybe in the early stages of what I’d call a chronic debt crisis. It’s just very slow, very gradual.”
Why US Debt Servicing Costs Keep Climbing
A lot of it comes down to refinancing, as Treasuries sold at 1% to 3% are now being rolled over at up to 6%, and the budget is also far from balanced at the time of writing. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates interest hit $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2026, a record 3.4% of GDP and more than defense or Medicare. That bill is the clearest sign yet of what the debt crisis really looks like, and US debt servicing costs are only heading one way. Wigglesworth’s own estimate is around 3.5% to 3.6% of GDP right now.
He also said this:
“And that is not great. And it is definitely going higher, but it still is another decade before it hits kind of 5%-ish.”
A Chronic Crisis, Not An Acute One
Many people picture the US national debt crisis ending like Argentina or Greece, with a default and then a restructuring. Wigglesworth doesn’t buy that for America.
He stated:
“I don’t think that happens in a country like the United States that can literally print dollars.”
Wigglesworth also said this:
“This debt crisis doesn’t play out in hyperinflation, doesn’t play out in runaway bond yields. It plays out as debt eroding America’s financial health and being able to spend less on other stuff it wants to spend money on.”
Not everyone is that calm right now. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, CRFB President Maya MacGuineas put out a sharper US debt crisis warning:
“A fiscal crisis, once unthinkable, is now a distinct possibility.”
What Venice Teaches About Government Debt
The US debt crisis also has old roots. Wigglesworth’s book traces bonds back to 1171, when Venice funded a war fleet with tradable loans paying 5% a year. Venice never repaid that debt, but the Rialto market became the world’s first bond market.
Scope Ratings added its own US debt crisis warning this month, keeping the US at AA- but expecting debt near 160% of GDP within a decade. So far, the US debt crisis in 2026 has been a slow grind, and it leaves Washington fewer tools for the next downturn, which also matters for anyone holding bonds, stocks or crypto. The US national debt crisis may never explode, but Wigglesworth warned it could still be quite painful.