The DXY index, which tracks the performance of the US dollar dipped to the 98.40 mark during late April. It fell from a high of 109.60 last year to a low of 98 in less than 12 months. A new world order is rising on the horizon where the US supremacy is being sidelined by developing countries. Emerging economies are rewriting trade deals favoring local currencies and giving the US dollar a miss.
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The move could send the US dollar on the path of decline as it would lose command in the global supply and demand mechanism of the currency markets. Local currencies are now strengthening and arm-twisting the greenback in the broader forex markets. The influx of investments in the USD is declining as traders take long positions in local currencies.
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US Dollar Decline Could Make Way For a New World Order: Analyst
Rupen Rajguru, MD & Senior Advisor at Julius Baer said to the Economic Times that the US dollar is on its way down. He explained that the greenback’s weakness is reflected in the DXY chart and predicted it could decline further. He stressed that the kneejerk reaction to tariffs is over and developing countries are finding ways to safeguard their economies.
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“The global market seems to have decoupled from the US market and the reason is the way the entire tariff tantrum has come through. Not only that, but the way every day, new stances have been taken with the US president taking on various subjects. So two things are very clear. One, the US dollar is on its way down and that is getting reflected in the DXY,” he said.
“Secondly, there seems to be a new world order. Wherein earlier it was a multilateral free trade and now it is going to be more of a bilateral trade. In that event, what is happening is that thanks to the US exceptionalism over the last four years. On average 80% of the overall flows into equities went into the US. But because of this new structure, probably a lot of the flows will get into some of the other countries including Europe, some of the other Asian countries, India included,” he summed it up.