Gold price after jobs data actually pulled back to around $3,360 levels on Monday as traders were still processing Friday’s pretty explosive employment report. The US nonfarm payrolls came in way under expectations at just 73,000 jobs versus the 115,000 that was expected, and this triggered some serious Fed rate cut outlook speculation while also supporting the gold market forecast. Right now, XAU/USD technical analysis is showing consolidation after the precious metal posted its sharpest single-day gain since early June.
Gold Price After Jobs Data: Rally Fuels Fed Cut Speculation & XAU/USD Trends
Employment Miss Actually Sparks Gold Rally
The July jobs report delivered some pretty shocking results that immediately impacted gold price after jobs data was released on Friday. US nonfarm payrolls added only 73,000 positions, which fell well short of what consensus estimates were calling for. Along with that, previous months faced massive revisions, with June getting slashed from 147,000 down to just 14,000 jobs and May cut from 139,000 to 19,000.
This labor market weakness has strengthened the Fed rate cut outlook significantly. Traders are now pricing in an 81% probability of September easing according to CME FedWatch data. The unemployment rate actually climbed to 4.2% from 4.1%, as more Americans entered the workforce but couldn’t secure employment.
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Fed Discord Fuels Rate Cut Speculation
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting revealed some unprecedented internal disagreement that’s affecting the gold market forecast. For the first time since 1993, two Fed governors formally dissented from the majority’s decision to hold rates at 4.25%-4.5%. This split adds even more weight to XAU/USD technical analysis that’s pointing toward continued strength.
Gold price after jobs data remains supported by this monetary policy uncertainty. The dissenting governors actually favored immediate cuts, which suggests growing pressure within the central bank to begin easing. US nonfarm payrolls weakness provides additional justification for some dovish policy shifts going forward.
Technical Outlook Remains Pretty Bullish
XAU/USD technical analysis indicates that gold is consolidating near $3,360 resistance after Friday’s impressive 2.2% surge. The precious metal maintains a solid 2.5% weekly gain despite Monday’s pause. Fed rate cut outlook improvements continue supporting bullion’s upward trajectory at the time of writing.
The gold market forecast remains constructive given multiple supportive factors that are in play right now. Lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets, while economic uncertainty drives safe-haven demand. Political tensions and trade concerns also benefit precious metals positioning.
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Current market dynamics suggest that gold price after jobs data weakness could extend gains even further. US nonfarm payrolls disappointment reinforces the Fed rate cut outlook for September. XAU/USD technical analysis points to potential breakouts above current resistance levels as the gold market forecast turns increasingly bullish on monetary easing expectations.