The Jerome Powell probe has triggered widespread concerns about Fed independence risk and US dollar risk as federal prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair. The Federal Reserve investigation centers on Powell’s Senate testimony about the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, and it marks an unprecedented escalation of political pressure on Fed officials. Right now, markets are grappling with what this means for monetary policy independence and also for dollar stability at a time when regulatory uncertainty is already weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
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Fed Independence Risk Deepens As Federal Reserve Probe Shakes Markets
The Jerome Powell investigation was made public Sunday with the chair of the Fed confirming that the Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas Friday. The reaction of Powell was remarkable and he clearly connected the investigation conducted by the Federal Reserve to continuous political pressure on Fed authorities regarding interest rates. Investors who value the independence of the central bank have expressed concern over this investigation and economists all over the world are monitoring keenly how this situation is going to play out. By the time of writing, Powell has issued a video statement that went to the official account of Federal Reserve. He clarified his stand in what the Jerome Powell probe actually is in it.
Powell stated:
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
He also added:
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”
Criminal Probe Targets Renovation Testimony
The Jerome Powell probe focuses on his June 2025 Senate Banking Committee testimony about the central bank’s renovation project. Federal prosecutors are examining whether Powell accurately characterized the project’s scope and costs during congressional appearances, and the investigation was initiated after Rep. Anna Paulina Luna referred Powell to the DOJ. Powell has said the renovation concerns are “pretexts” for undermining the Fed’s independence, and he has made it clear that he views this as part of a broader pattern of threats.
The Federal Reserve investigation comes as tensions between the administration and the central bank have been escalating for months. President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with the Fed’s interest rate policies, and he has repeatedly criticized Powell for not cutting rates as quickly as he would prefer. This Jerome Powell probe represents a significant escalation of that conflict.
Market Response and Political Fallout
The Jerome Powell probe has sparked strong reactions from both lawmakers and market analysts. Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, expressed shock at the development in a note to clients.
Guha stated:
“We are stunned by this deeply disturbing development which came out of the blue after a period in which tensions between Trump and the Fed seemed to be contained.”
Political leaders have also been weighing in on the Federal Reserve investigation. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was particularly critical of the move.
Schumer said:
“This is the kind of bullying that we’ve all come to expect from Donald Trump and his cronies. Anyone who is independent and doesn’t just fall in line behind Trump gets investigated.”
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced he will oppose any Fed nominee confirmation until the Jerome Powell probe resolves itself. The investigation raises serious questions about US dollar risk as investors assess threats to monetary policy independence and the potential impact on global markets. The Fed independence risk extends beyond just this moment, and it could have lasting implications for how central bank policy is conducted in the future.
Trump Denies Involvement As Administration Defends Action
Trump, for his part, has denied knowledge of the investigation.
He told NBC News:
“I don’t know anything about it, but he’s certainly not very good at the Fed, and he’s not very good at building buildings.”
A spokesperson for Attorney General Pam Bondi provided a statement about the administration’s priorities.
The spokesperson said:
“The Attorney General has instructed her U.S. Attorneys to prioritize investigating any abuse of tax payer dollars.”
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Implications For Powell’s Replacement and Future Fed Leadership
Trump is planning to nominate Powell’s successor while the Federal Reserve probe unfolds, and he plans to announce his replacement by May. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, stands among the candidates under consideration, and observers will closely monitor the decision given the current political pressure on Fed officials. The risk to Fed independence extends beyond Powell’s tenure, and future chairs may face similar pressure when they make interest rate decisions. This Jerome Powell probe carries implications that reach far beyond a single investigation, and markets will watch closely how a less independent central bank affects US dollar risk in the weeks and months ahead.